In many industries and countries, the most in-demand specialties did not exist 10 or even five years ago, and the pace of change is set to accelerate, says a World Economic Forum (WEF) report. “Over 65 percent of children entering primary school today will ultimately end up working in completely new job types that don’t yet exist.” In such a rapidly evolving employment landscape, the ability to prepare for future skills requirements is increasingly critical for businesses, governments and individuals to seize the opportunities presented by these trends. The “Future of Jobs” report did a survey of CHROs and other senior talent executives from a total of 371 leading global employers, representing more than 13 million employees across 9 broad industry sectors in 15 major developed and emerging economies and regional economic areas.
Developments in previously disjointed fields such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, robotics, nanotechnology, 3D printing and genetics, and biotechnology are all building on and amplifying one another. The report found that average respondents expect that the impact for nearly all drivers will occur within the next 5 years, highlighting the urgency for adaptive action today.
The global workforce is expected to experience significant churn between job families and functions.
Across the countries covered by the report, current trends could lead to a net employment impact of more than 5.1 million jobs lost to disruptive labor market changes over the period 2015–2020, with a total loss of 7.1 million jobs—two thirds of which are concentrated in routine white-collar office functions, such as Office and Administrative roles—and a total gain of two million jobs, in Computer and Mathematical and Architecture and Engineering related fields.
The emerging roles
Two job types stand out due to the frequency and consistency with which they were mentioned by CHROs across practically all industries and geographies. The first is data analysts, which companies expect will help them derive insights from the torrent of data generated by technological disruptions. The second are specialized sales representatives, as practically every industry will need to become skilled in explaining their offerings to business and consumers. A particular need is also seen in industries as varied as Energy and Media, Entertainment and Information for a new type of senior manager who will successfully steer companies through the upcoming change and disruption.
Given the overall disruption industries are experiencing, it is not surprising that competition for talent in in-demand job families such as Computer and Mathematical and Architecture and Engineering and other strategic and specialist roles will be fierce, and finding efficient ways of securing a solid talent pipeline a priority for virtually every industry. The situation is expected to worsen significantly over the 2015-2020 period. “Our respondents report, says the report, that a tangible impact of many of these disruptions on the adequacy of employees’ existing skill sets can already be felt in a wide range of jobs and industries today.”
The new skills set
Given the rapid pace of change, business model disruptions are resulting in a near-simultaneous impact on skill sets for both current and emerging jobs across industries. If skills demand is evolving rapidly at an aggregate industry level, the degree of changing skills requirements within individual job families and occupations is even more pronounced. Across nearly all industries, the impact of technological changes is shortening the shelf-life of employees’ existing skill sets.
For example, technological disruptions such as robotics and machine learning—rather than completely replacing existing occupations and job categories—are likely to substitute specific tasks previously carried out as part of these jobs, freeing workers up to focus on new tasks and leading to rapidly changing core skill sets in these occupations.
“On average, by 2020, more than a third of the desired core skill sets of most occupations will be comprised of skills that are not yet considered crucial to the job today,” according to the report. Overall, social skills— such as persuasion, emotional intelligence and teaching others—will be in higher demand across industries than narrow technical skills, such as programming or equipment operation and control.
The future workforce
The impact of technological, demographic and socioeconomic disruptions on business models will be felt in transformations to the employment landscape and skills requirements. This will result in substantial challenges for recruiting, training and managing talent. The Report finds that business leaders are aware of these looming challenges but have been slow to act decisively. “Across all industries, about two-thirds of our respondents report intentions to invest in the reskilling of current employees as part of their change management and future workforce planning efforts,” adds the report.
The immediate focus areas
“It is our actions today that will determine whether we head towards massive displacement of workers or the emergence of new opportunities,” says the report. During previous industrial revolutions, it often took decades to build the training systems and labor market institutions needed to develop major new skill sets on a large scale.
Given the upcoming pace and scale of disruption brought about by the Fourth Industrial Revolution, however, this is simply not an option. Without targeted action today to manage the near-term transition and build a workforce with futureproof skills, governments will have to cope with ever-growing unemployment and inequality, and businesses with a shrinking consumer base, according to the report.
“Businesses will need to put talent development and future workforce strategy front and center to their growth. As business leaders begin to consider proactive adaptation to the new talent landscape, they need to manage skills disruption as an urgent concern as the immediate focus,” recommends WEF. Businesses and governments will need to build a new approach to workforce planning and talent management, where better forecasting data and planning metrics will need to be central.
“It is time for a fundamental change in how talent diversity issues perceived and well-known barriers tackled. Technology and data analytics may become a useful tool for advancing workforce parity,” adds the report. Leveraging flexible working arrangements and online talent platforms will be another immediate focus area, as identified by WEF.