Indonesia has officially entered the ageing population phase, raising concerns over the country’s long-term economic growth and social welfare readiness as its demographic dividend begins to narrow.
Findings from the 2025 Intercensal Population Survey (SUPAS) released by Statistics Indonesia (BPS) show that 11.97% of the population is now aged 60 and above, surpassing the 10% threshold commonly used internationally to classify an ageing society.
BPS head Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti said the threshold follows standards set by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs and Indonesian law, which define elderly citizens as individuals aged 60 years and older.
The proportion of elderly Indonesians has steadily risen over the past 15 years, climbing from 7.59% in 2010 to 8.47% in 2015, 9.93% in 2020, and nearly 12% in 2025.
At the same time, Indonesia’s productive-age population, defined as those between 15 and 64 years old, has begun to shrink after peaking at 69.28% in 2020. The figure declined slightly to 68.94% this year, signalling the gradual end of the country’s demographic bonus period.
Indonesia’s total population reached 284.67 million in 2025, growing at an annual average rate of 1.08% over the last five years. However, fertility rates continue to decline. The country’s total fertility rate fell from 2.41 children per woman in 2010 to 2.13 in 2024, nearing the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain population stability without migration.
The demographic shift mirrors trends already seen in countries such as Japan, South Korea and China, where shrinking workforces and rising elderly populations have intensified pressure on healthcare systems, pensions and public finances.
Data from the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) projects Indonesia’s productive-age population share will continue to decline and fall below two-thirds of the population by 2045, the same year the government hopes to achieve its “Golden Indonesia 2045” vision of becoming a developed economy.
Maliki, Undersecretary for Community Empowerment, Population and Manpower Affairs at Bappenas, warned that Indonesia still has an opportunity to capitalise on its demographic dividend, but the window is rapidly narrowing.
“The door to reaching the 2045 goal is still open, but the window to capitalise on the demographic dividend is narrowing,” Maliki said, adding that economic productivity mattered more than simply having a large working-age population.
He also pointed to Indonesia’s rising dependency ratio, which measures the number of dependents supported by working-age citizens. The ratio rose to 45.05 in 2025, meaning every 100 productive workers support around 45 non-working-age individuals.
Economists have also flagged structural risks stemming from Indonesia’s large informal workforce. Nearly 60% of workers remain employed in the informal sector, where pension coverage and tax contributions are limited.
Only about 9% of Indonesia’s elderly population currently rely on pensions, while almost half depend on financial support from family members. Another 38% continue working in old age, mostly in informal jobs, while just 1% rely on savings or investments.
Josua Pardede said Indonesia could eventually face pressures similar to those experienced in Germany, where pension systems are increasingly strained by a growing elderly population.
“Indonesia is instead facing a double risk where, on the one hand, pension coverage is still small, so many elderly are at risk of poverty, and on the other hand, if the government expands elderly assistance without a strong revenue basis, the state’s fiscal burden would increase sharply,” Josua said.
Meanwhile, Syafruddin Karimi warned that socioeconomic pressures may rise faster than government policy responses.
“Without a change of strategy, 2045 will turn from the envisioned Golden Indonesia to a severe test of population ageing,” he said.
The capital region, DKI Jakarta, has already entered the ageing population phase. SUPAS 2025 data show that 12.01% of Jakarta’s residents are now aged 60 and above, up sharply from 9.03% in 2020.
Central Jakarta recorded the highest elderly population share at 14.12%, followed by South Jakarta at 12.55%. In contrast, the Thousand Islands district posted the lowest share at 8.64%.
The survey also revealed that more than half of Jakarta’s elderly population, 52.28%, still depend primarily on financial or in-kind support from family members, while 27.72% continue working. Only 13.92% rely on pensions.
Despite slowing population growth in Jakarta, the city remains in its demographic bonus phase, with working-age residents accounting for 71.26% of the population. Millennials and Generation Z together make up nearly half of Jakarta’s total population, reflecting the continued dominance of younger working generations even as ageing accelerates.