NESDC warns GenAI may reshape Thailand workforce

Thailand faces mounting pressure to future-proof its workforce as generative artificial intelligence threatens to disrupt nearly 9 million jobs, according to new estimates from the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC).

AI disruption

The council warned that 8.7 million workers, representing 21.8% of Thailand’s 40.1 million workforce, could be impacted by GenAI-driven disruption in the coming years.

Speaking during a briefing on Thailand’s social conditions for the first quarter of 2026, Danucha Pichayanan, secretary-general, NESDC said the assessment was based on an occupational risk model for GenAI developed by Gmyrek et al (2025), using Labour Force Survey data from late 2025.

The findings underline growing fears that AI-led automation is no longer a future challenge but an immediate labour market reality.

Danucha said the government is accelerating upskilling and reskilling programmes as AI adoption spreads across industries. Universities are also revising curriculums to prepare students for an increasingly AI-driven economy.

Jobs pressure

Thailand’s unemployment rate rose to 0.94% in the first quarter of 2026, equivalent to around 390,000 people. The figure marked a 9.9% increase compared with the same period last year.

At the same time, overall employment expanded by 4.6%, supported by recovery in agriculture and continued growth in non-agricultural sectors.

Wholesale and retail trade posted the strongest hiring gains, followed by transportation, warehousing and manufacturing. However, average monthly wages slipped 0.6% to 16,145 baht per person.

The NESDC also flagged concerns around rising household debt. By the fourth quarter of 2025, household debt had reached 16.4 trillion baht, equivalent to 86.7% of GDP.

Non-performing personal loans overdue by more than 90 days climbed to 1.31 trillion baht, accounting for 9.59% of total loans, according to data from the National Credit Bureau.

Danucha warned households against excessive borrowing amid economic uncertainty.

“We should avoid taking on debt at this time, given the economic constraints and uncertainties ahead,” he said.

He also cautioned that virtual banks and digital lending platforms could worsen debt cycles if left unchecked, pointing to experiences in China and the Philippines where online lending growth has been linked to rising bad loans.

Entrepreneur push

Meanwhile, Charnwit Boonchuay, president, Artificial Intelligence Entrepreneurs Association of Thailand said the projection that AI could affect up to 9 million jobs mirrors wider global trends, especially as agentic AI automates routine and procedural work.

He warned that Thailand cannot depend on large corporations alone to absorb displaced workers, as business expansion remains too slow to generate enough new jobs.

Traditional sectors including manufacturing and agriculture are also unlikely to support a large-scale workforce transition, he added.

Instead, Charnwit urged Thailand to build a new generation of AI-powered micro-entrepreneurs.

“AI is dramatically lowering barriers to entry, allowing small businesses run by just one or two people to generate income beyond that of traditional full-time employment,” he said.

He called on the government to provide free AI infrastructure, particularly AI inference servers, so people can experiment, learn and launch AI-led businesses without major upfront costs.

Charnwit compared the proposal to the way global technology companies offer free cloud credits to startups.

He added that adaptability and curiosity will matter more than technical qualifications in the AI economy, as modern AI tools continue to simplify coding and complex tasks.

For workers aged 45 and above, Charnwit said industry expertise and soft skills will remain valuable.

Older professionals, he argued, could use AI to scale their knowledge, collaborate with younger talent, shift into consultancy work or contribute to AI model training using decades of professional experience, a trend already emerging in China.