Post-holiday migration back to cities threatens Indonesia’s demographic dividend: BKKBN

Indonesia’s post-holiday reverse migration back to major cities is raising concerns about the country’s long-term demographic and economic balance, with officials warning that the trend could undermine Indonesia’s demographic dividend if structural disparities between urban and rural regions are not addressed.

The population agency under Indonesia’s Population and Family Development Ministry (BKKBN) said the stronger return flow to cities after holiday periods reflects deeper economic realities rather than temporary travel patterns. 

According to Bonivasius Prasetya Ichtiarto, deputy for population control at BKKBN, large cities continue to attract rural residents seeking employment and economic opportunity, while villages are losing the young workforce needed to drive local development and sustainability.

He warned that the consequences extend beyond economic inequality, affecting social disparities, ecological balance and environmental sustainability in rural regions.

Without policy intervention, he said, Indonesia’s demographic dividend, the economic growth potential resulting from a large working-age population, could turn into a burden. Cities could face increasing infrastructure pressure, while rural areas risk population aging and persistent unemployment.

Labor data highlights the complexity of the issue. Referring to the Population Development Road Map (PJPK), Ichtiarto noted that Indonesia’s open unemployment rate fell from 7.73 percent in 2020 to around 4.85 percent in 2025, according to Statistics Indonesia. However, disparities remain between urban and rural areas. Urban unemployment stands at about 5.6 percent, higher than the 3.6 percent recorded in rural regions.

Indonesia’s workforce currently stands at around 154 million people, with a labor force participation rate of 70.59 percent in 2025. Of these workers, approximately 59.12 percent are employed in the informal sector, reflecting the continued dominance of informal employment across the economy. 

Formal job opportunities remain heavily concentrated in cities, which continues to drive large-scale migration from villages to urban centers.

Ichtiarto also pointed out that certified skilled workers are still largely concentrated in urban areas, leaving rural workers less competitive in the labor market. 

Economic disparities are further reflected in regional income gaps. Gross regional domestic product per capita in Jakarta and East Kalimantan exceeds 300 million rupiah, while many other provinces remain below 60 million rupiah.

To address the imbalance, he urged local governments to implement action plans based on the Population Development Road Map, focusing on strengthening local economies, improving workforce quality and managing migration more sustainably.

He emphasized that rural areas must be repositioned in national development strategy. Villages, he said, should not be seen merely as sources of labor for cities, but as potential centers of economic growth in their own right.